7.17.2009






Hurricane Carlos and Tropical Storm Dolores in the Eastern Pacific
Carlos remains a small but somewhat organized hurricane. As of 8 a.m. PDT, Hurricane Carlos was centered near 10.3 north and 129.5 west, or about 1,560 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Maximum sustained winds with Carlos have lowered to 85 mph with higher gusts. The storm is now moving west at 6 mph and is expected to stay on a westerly course through Thursday with a gradual increase in forward speed.
Carlos broke away from thunderstorms along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone on Tuesday and as a result regained hurricane strength. Carlos is a very small hurricane, sometimes referred to as a "midget tropical cyclone," with hurricane-force winds extend outward only 10 miles from the center. In fact, tropical storm force winds are generally within 50 miles of the storm's center... to put this in perspective, the diameter of tropical storm-force winds is smaller than the width of Connecticut.
The hurricane will continue to move west at 6-8 mph on the southern periphery of a large upper-level high pressure area to the north. Carlos is heading into a region of stronger shear, subsequently leading to steady weakening through Thursday. The storm is expected to pass well to the south of Hawaii by early next week in a much weaker form.
Tropical Depression 5-E formed late Tuesday evening just to the east of Carlos in the eastern Pacific and has strengthened into Tropical Storm Dolores as of 8 a.m. PDT Wednesday. Dolores was located near 15.0 North and 115.6 West, or 605 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The storm now moving to the northwest at 13 mph and a general northwest or west-northwest track is expected over the next few days. The maximum sustained winds have strengthened to near 40 mph with higher gusts. A bit more strengthening is possible as the storm slowly moves northwestward, before it encounters much cooler waters. Dolores is not anticipated to become a threat to land as it travels across the open waters of the Pacific over the next few days.
Elsewhere in the Eastern Pacific Basin, a weak tropical wave is along 102 west north of 4 north, but there are no signs of any organization at this time। No development of this tropical wave is expected for at least the next couple of days। http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=netweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific
SV TATOOSH POSITION 45* 44.044' N by 122* 51.695' W
















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